Some Fed officials said a half-point Fed rate cut in September would become more likely if there were signs of a further slowdown in hiring. The longer the Fed keeps borrowing costs high, the more it risks weakening the economy too much and causing a recession. Yet, if it cuts rates too soon, it risks reigniting inflation, which is still volatile due to geopolitical conflicts and uncertain outlook.
However, with the US economy standing at a precipice with consumer confidence showing signs of weakness, spending slowing, and concerns over corporate earnings, many argue that a cautious approach won’t cut it.
The Fed was behind the curve when this cycle began, and it cannot afford to make the same mistake twice. With rates currently sitting at a more than two-decade high, there’s no room for hesitation. A 25-basis point cut might signal a shift, but it’s not the aggressive action needed to stave off a potentially devastating hard landing.
If the central bank doesn’t move decisively, we could be looking at a prolonged period of stagnation, or worse, a full-blown recession. The stakes couldn’t be higher. The Fed needs to stop playing catch-up and start leading the charge.
Anything less than a 50-basis point cut in September would be a missed opportunity – one that the economy and Americans can’t afford.
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